Sunday, April 22, 2012

The Ibex on the Brink

The spring is not sitting at all well to Ibex, from its inception the corrections have been the main trend that has led the Spanish index to lows of 2009 and virtually the same area from which it rebounded following the dot com crisis early in the last decade. In stock terms, barring more inflation, we can speak of a lost decade.
The question is what will happen from now. The index is in zone indicators bearings and with a strong oversold, so it is likely a reaction. The situation is if you lose the supports is very negative, it seems quite obvious ABC correction, with the current wave C correction of the whole movement. The question is whether end in the area where the wave A ended or will require a lower minimum, be produced and the length of the C of the same order of A, would lead to a target in the 3,000.
Given the composition of the Dow with a heavy weight of the banking sector, this end would not be entirely unheard of, if you also add the important weighting Repsol, we have a likely scenario, compatible with punishment differed among the securities industry, with very punished and others resigned to the lateral inertia.
In the above analysis we referred to the Ides of March and bearish tradition of St. Joseph, today we could bring up the English aphorism of "sell in may and go away". Only 4 days.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

The Nothing

I'm walking through the streets of my city and watch, depressed, as The Nothing is becoming more widespread.
Shops, bars, restaurants are closed one after another without interruption.
It is true that open new stores. Six months. This is what last.
I get the impression that they are burning huge amounts of effort and resources continuously, without any purpose, without continuity, without any future.
Unfortunately only the tertiary sector are not going to get ahead and I fear that at present there is no industry to replace the building sector, so that the decline will be slow and cruel. What a shame.

Monday, April 9, 2012

Civil servants

We are waiting for a New International Order, we live in a society in transition and it may last a few years yet, and meanwhile our solution was to give power to the technocrats.
When society loses faith in its leaders turns his gaze toward the technical, ie those which are in principle free of ideological guidelines and should take only those measures that really are suitable to overcome the current crisis.
That's in theory, because the technicians are a class by itself, the bureaucracy, characterized by immobility and the low-risk decision making.
The economic measures taken by our government have not liked anything to markets, just look at the risk premium in our debt, at levels of intervention, and equity markets at year lows. They have not liked, among other things, because only with cuts does not solve the national problem now, growth.
The current managers are acting as diligent CFOs, when things go wrong act cutting costs and investments, minimizing risk, are likely to take defensive positions. I'm not saying that is not appropriate to take such measures, but like many things in life, it's all about proportions.
Companies that fall into the hands of CFOs have the danger of financial panic ahead, are dominated by visions in retrospect, that is, remake or break decisions made earlier in another context.
The companies leading the markets are those in charge but not the CFO to the CEO, that figure should take into account financial aspects, especially in the context of lack of credit, but to have the courage to take risks future growth.
Our leaders are too worried about their accounts and what they owe, when they should be concerned with how to generate the wealth of tomorrow.
Again a question of allocation of scarce resources, they have chosen to safeguard the interests of its class, the civil service, and sacrifice the public investment.
There is an undeniable fact: if it were not so well paid profession of officer graduates would not have so many that they should seek a job opportunity in this area.

Monday, April 2, 2012

The wasted years

The markets may not go down well at the recent measures taken by the spanish executive, probably because they realize that they will not be much use, at least in the short term. It will not improve employment, will not improve the consumer, will not improve growth, will not improve the deficit (which makes sense since it is based on everything else). Budgets are fears that become applicable after the summer, so it has installed a sense of "another lost year".
It wasn't 2011, not 2012, it is doubtful that the 2013 and probably the start date of light recovery is 2014 or 2015. Overall, a waste decade for everyone. Those who have no work now, nor will in the coming years, so when the economy recovers it will be unrecoverable.
Whether you are young, because then it will be another cohort willing to take his place in the pyramid, and for the seniors, if they are now in an age when companies do not look at them, within 3 years and will flesh retirement 10 years although they are active. In economic terms this is called obsolescence, although the equipment to operate, companies prefer a new one, although it makes the same function have to look again, to be "cool", we like the Ipad, we started to the labour market and, at the same time, we are history .

The graph of the Ibex-35 does not inspire any hope, only the long-term support (7700) resist, if not, the fall can be historical. Anyway we are not alarmists, the trend is most likely the laterality until they clear up doubts.
We'll always have the option, if the Ibex 35 drops too low, that we can sell the whole countrie to China, and then he would be the way to be part of the EU, without meeting the convergence criteria and solve the problem of autonomic deficits: the Tibet's way.