The Ibex on the Brink

The spring is not sitting at all well to Ibex, from its inception the corrections have been the main trend that has led the Spanish index to lows of 2009 and virtually the same area from which it rebounded following the dot com crisis early in the last decade. In stock terms, barring more inflation, we can speak of a lost decade.
The question is what will happen from now. The index is in zone indicators bearings and with a strong oversold, so it is likely a reaction. The situation is if you lose the supports is very negative, it seems quite obvious ABC correction, with the current wave C correction of the whole movement. The question is whether end in the area where the wave A ended or will require a lower minimum, be produced and the length of the C of the same order of A, would lead to a target in the 3,000.
Given the composition of the Dow with a heavy weight of the banking sector, this end would not be entirely unheard of, if you also add the important weighting Repsol, we have a likely scenario, compatible with punishment differed among the securities industry, with very punished and others resigned to the lateral inertia.
In the above analysis we referred to the Ides of March and bearish tradition of St. Joseph, today we could bring up the English aphorism of "sell in may and go away". Only 4 days.

The Nothing

I'm walking through the streets of my city and watch, depressed, as The Nothing is becoming more widespread.
Shops, bars, restaurants are closed one after another without interruption.
It is true that open new stores. Six months. This is what last.
I get the impression that they are burning huge amounts of effort and resources continuously, without any purpose, without continuity, without any future.
Unfortunately only the tertiary sector are not going to get ahead and I fear that at present there is no industry to replace the building sector, so that the decline will be slow and cruel. What a shame.

Civil servants

We are waiting for a New International Order, we live in a society in transition and it may last a few years yet, and meanwhile our solution was to give power to the technocrats.
When society loses faith in its leaders turns his gaze toward the technical, ie those which are in principle free of ideological guidelines and should take only those measures that really are suitable to overcome the current crisis.
That's in theory, because the technicians are a class by itself, the bureaucracy, characterized by immobility and the low-risk decision making.
The economic measures taken by our government have not liked anything to markets, just look at the risk premium in our debt, at levels of intervention, and equity markets at year lows. They have not liked, among other things, because only with cuts does not solve the national problem now, growth.
The current managers are acting as diligent CFOs, when things go wrong act cutting costs and investments, minimizing risk, are likely to take defensive positions. I'm not saying that is not appropriate to take such measures, but like many things in life, it's all about proportions.
Companies that fall into the hands of CFOs have the danger of financial panic ahead, are dominated by visions in retrospect, that is, remake or break decisions made earlier in another context.
The companies leading the markets are those in charge but not the CFO to the CEO, that figure should take into account financial aspects, especially in the context of lack of credit, but to have the courage to take risks future growth.
Our leaders are too worried about their accounts and what they owe, when they should be concerned with how to generate the wealth of tomorrow.
Again a question of allocation of scarce resources, they have chosen to safeguard the interests of its class, the civil service, and sacrifice the public investment.
There is an undeniable fact: if it were not so well paid profession of officer graduates would not have so many that they should seek a job opportunity in this area.

The wasted years

The markets may not go down well at the recent measures taken by the spanish executive, probably because they realize that they will not be much use, at least in the short term. It will not improve employment, will not improve the consumer, will not improve growth, will not improve the deficit (which makes sense since it is based on everything else). Budgets are fears that become applicable after the summer, so it has installed a sense of "another lost year".
It wasn't 2011, not 2012, it is doubtful that the 2013 and probably the start date of light recovery is 2014 or 2015. Overall, a waste decade for everyone. Those who have no work now, nor will in the coming years, so when the economy recovers it will be unrecoverable.
Whether you are young, because then it will be another cohort willing to take his place in the pyramid, and for the seniors, if they are now in an age when companies do not look at them, within 3 years and will flesh retirement 10 years although they are active. In economic terms this is called obsolescence, although the equipment to operate, companies prefer a new one, although it makes the same function have to look again, to be "cool", we like the Ipad, we started to the labour market and, at the same time, we are history .

The graph of the Ibex-35 does not inspire any hope, only the long-term support (7700) resist, if not, the fall can be historical. Anyway we are not alarmists, the trend is most likely the laterality until they clear up doubts.
We'll always have the option, if the Ibex 35 drops too low, that we can sell the whole countrie to China, and then he would be the way to be part of the EU, without meeting the convergence criteria and solve the problem of autonomic deficits: the Tibet's way.

Early retirees

Following takeover Unnim by BBVA has shown, again, who is bearing the brunt of the restructuring, employees seniors.
The statements of the head of BBVA in Catalonia made ​​last week pointed in that direction, the adjustment will be based on relocations and, above all, the layoffs will be made based on early retirement.

I searched Google images of seniors, in the vast majority belonged to elderly couples performing a fun, smiling, happy, carefree.

It is possible that in some cases may be so, even after a certain age is unquestionable, especially if you have health to enjoy it, but in many cases we are hiding behind a perverse effect early retirement from the economic point of view and deeply unfair: is dismissed due to the greater or lesser proximity to the legal age of retirement is not based on your professional skills.

In certain areas where physical activity is the differentiating factor may be reasonable to think that element of discrimination, however, in areas where the experience and background is everything, in sectors where the human element is the resource on which rests the corporate success or failure is difficult to understand him to be dispensed.

The society we are creating a society that criminalizes the knowing and knowledge, despite making this flag, it penalizes productivity, are dismissed as a collective rather than less competitive but for belonging to a particular cohort of age.

Curiously, the same as they were dismissed after they are sought as clients, apparently only a change of view.

The Ides of March

I am a little concerned, although it seems that no matter how bad the news that appears, and that the market remains above the supports, approaches spring, or whatever it is, the Ides of March. The oldest of the place have always attributed a character bass in late winter and early spring, will be it that alters blood. The truth is that I prefer to think as M. Twain and hope that this month is as good or bad as the others.

The Ibex, despite everything, is below the resistance line, an area that in recent months has been impossible to penetrate. The indicators are somewhat overbought so, barring any positive surprise, it not seems that there will be a break immediately.

The finding by Rajoy that is impossible that what is impossible, despite the tenacity Calvinist from Central Europe, and the unstoppable rise in unemployment; the measures taken are not going to give short-term results, especially for what it really reduces the unemployment is growth, and I fear it is the only one not expect. As the pendulum rule requires, in addition, ministers are now more than ash and give no joy to anyone.

Moreover, the evolution of certain commodities, especially oil, threatens to end to screw the little hope there, that the rest of Europe to grow and pull us.
Bad times for poetry.

Barcelona front page of NY Times

Well, looks like we've done it again, Barcelona on the front page of newspapers worldwide, but not held during these days one of the most important congresses related to new technologies or the impact this event has on the local economy, no, once again we are news disturbances generated by a band of fanatics, who covered the mass engaged in urban terrorism with the approval of everyone.

Everyone should be aware that the picture, its characters, they are still, despite the violence they contain, mere puppets of a much more elaborate joke.

On one hand, the mass outrage, they raise rates by pursuing higher education. In Spain, ignorance leads us to hope that everyone has a college degree, in 60 years we have gone from being illiterate to high school graduates struggling to be civil servants or professionals prepared to nurture companies from outside our country, this is called a good investment.

In addition it is intended that social mobility are paid by the state, ie, everyone. It might seem redistributive, but once again the wrong focus, redistribution is allow the best prepared reach the highest levels of knowledge without the cost prevents them from reaching, the rest, if you want, you pay. That is, more scholarships and the rest to pay the real cost of education. We live in a country where the middle and upper middle class send their children to school concerted, good private schools because we pay the rest part. That each hold your candle stick, who can afford private schools that pay and who not, to the public.

Of course, we are in the country of half solutions, as we can not make a local finance law allow municipalities are financed by selling land and urbanized municipality, as we can not afford the education necessary public squares, to subsidize private schools.

That good business is done with the money of others. Almost I prefer the American model, it will be unfair in some respects, but ultimately prevails further effort and perseverance in his work as a true redistribution of income, the other are front pages.