Markets

At this point in the film there are still those who believe that financial markets are really markets?.

Today's session has been paradigmatic, initial increases of over 5% to close half a point in the negative zone, the premium risk down at the start to finish higher than it started.

Had not made ​​the ransom to appease the "markets"?. I fear that something had to fail.

After the big news of the rescue, all the analysts who appeared on television given by "discounting" the news. This is one of the wonders of the market, everything is discounted, no more than apply the soft efficiency hypothesis and that's it. Everything is in the market, past and present. But today we have breakfast with almost 6% rise, anything went wrong? I can say that the initial movement was due to a monumental closing shorts, especially in banks. After the massive closing, someone could to put up money to have entered the rise, but again do this late in the film are who you want to invest?.

Individual investors withdrew a long time to try something in exchange, are beaten and run any risk. Are the institutions? Mutual funds and insurance companies and money unwillingness to sign them should be an adventure like today. Who is left? The banks themselves.

I fear that the protagonists of the creepy downs in recent months to be financial institutions themselves and are playing the dangerous game to cover their losses resulting outcomes in others. The HFT and speculative portfolios of banks are the absolute protagonists of the whole problem of falling asset prices and loss of confidence in the system.

We solve give them more money, where it used? Will they give a respite to the productive economy or continue with the speculation?.

Efficient markets

A long time ago that financial markets are no longer efficient markets, to be should have a number of essential elements such as the participation of a large number of buyers and sellers, information handy to everyone and equal conditions access to markets and effective regulation to prevent conflicts of interest.

Regarding the number of buyers and sellers has been watching the gradual professionalization, which means a significant reduction in the number of independent investors as compensation for its replacement by an elite of managers. Investment funds, including hedge funds, are the current major players in the market function.

With regard to information has never been easier to access it and has never been so complicated as well, clearing the dust from the chaff, we have not only better information more noise. Something similar to what happens on television, the emergence of more channels has not only improved the level has increased crying.

In relation to equal access, the ever more numerous automatic trading programs (HFT) will fit trends, creating volatility where there is none to his orders, immense in amount and speed of execution, since they are machines those who shoot, make the most possible where there is nothing. So, ordinary mortals do not have anything to do about it, it is impossible to follow a trend because they are custom made machines.

The latter would not be so simple if there is background volume, but as it has driven out the small and medium investors, the game is between the tables of the large international brokers and managers who possess the technical and financial capacity to do so.

Regarding the law, what to say?, the collapse of 2007 seemed to gain momentum in this regard, but again everything has been watered down, the industry is always ahead of the legislator, is faster in the adjustment and pays much better .

Today the Ibex have fallen by 2% for no apparent reason except that you ignore a possible new war, this time with Iran.

The year has ended and the profitability of portfolios and funds will not improve in these four days left, to waste this year.

Large hands are always taken advantage of their privileged position, but now are moving earnestly, now just play with marked cards.