Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Style question

If we do a bit of memory and try to be minimally fair, remember that the last time got the PP in front of the Government of Spain, namely in 1996, the economic situation was radically different, this, far from buoyant was redirected through adjustment policies undertaken by the head of the Economy, Pedro Solbes.
The erosion of economic ajustment and the political (GAL affaire) for the last government Gonzalez, led the government relief. The PP was found with an economy still in recession but with the duties performed, so a tweak of the wheel, managed to capitalize on their own and others achievements.

The current situation can not be compared, obviously, the previous time the international economic situation which was supported and pushed the Spanish recovery, following competitive devaluations and improvement, the Spanish economy enjoyed the international climate to improve all indicators: growth, personal income, unemployment, etc. At the team responsible for then, Rato is assigned much of the success achieved but without offence, must be attributed a large share of that success to the international environment.

This time, the transfer of power has not been done in the same way, the crisis is not only national but rather international, Solbes, however much he tried, did not have a President of Government, at least at the beginning of problem, willing to sacrifice for the country, may not even really come to understand the proof of the problem.The PP has come, therefore, the government in an entirely different (though majority) since all the dirty work is done.

It is not worth the "laissez faire" to the ship back on track, we must roll up our sleeves. The current team in charge of economic affairs seems, however, have succumbed to the dilettante atmosphere of the Prime Minister, famous for his handling of "tempo": wait and see.

Be undertaken important structural reforms draft, have an absolute majority, years away for the next election. Citizens, no matter political color, if you explain things properly, understand them. All that is asked is that they act so that this agony is as short as possible.

What is not acceptable is to see the explanations after Guindos triumphalist European rebuke or see Montoro explain why rising VAT beacuse "there are much fraud." It is outrageous.

We are fed up that we always are compared with bullfighters and "old fashioned gentlemen", the Spanish are no longer so, only some of its politicians more dandruff.

Monday, April 2, 2012

The wasted years


The markets may not go down well at the recent measures taken by the spanish executive, probably because they realize that they will not be much use, at least in the short term. It will not improve employment, will not improve the consumer, will not improve growth, will not improve the deficit (which makes sense since it is based on everything else). Budgets are fears that become applicable after the summer, so it has installed a sense of "another lost year".
It wasn't 2011, not 2012, it is doubtful that the 2013 and probably the start date of light recovery is 2014 or 2015. Overall, a waste decade for everyone. Those who have no work now, nor will in the coming years, so when the economy recovers it will be unrecoverable.
Whether you are young, because then it will be another cohort willing to take his place in the pyramid, and for the seniors, if they are now in an age when companies do not look at them, within 3 years and will flesh retirement 10 years although they are active. In economic terms this is called obsolescence, although the equipment to operate, companies prefer a new one, although it makes the same function have to look again, to be "cool", we like the Ipad, we started to the labour market and, at the same time, we are history .


The graph of the Ibex-35 does not inspire any hope, only the long-term support (7700) resist, if not, the fall can be historical. Anyway we are not alarmists, the trend is most likely the laterality until they clear up doubts.
We'll always have the option, if the Ibex 35 drops too low, that we can sell the whole countrie to China, and then he would be the way to be part of the EU, without meeting the convergence criteria and solve the problem of autonomic deficits: the Tibet's way.

Friday, March 2, 2012

The Ides of March

I am a little concerned, although it seems that no matter how bad the news that appears, and that the market remains above the supports, approaches spring, or whatever it is, the Ides of March. The oldest of the place have always attributed a character bass in late winter and early spring, will be it that alters blood. The truth is that I prefer to think as M. Twain and hope that this month is as good or bad as the others.

The Ibex, despite everything, is below the resistance line, an area that in recent months has been impossible to penetrate. The indicators are somewhat overbought so, barring any positive surprise, it not seems that there will be a break immediately.

The finding by Rajoy that is impossible that what is impossible, despite the tenacity Calvinist from Central Europe, and the unstoppable rise in unemployment; the measures taken are not going to give short-term results, especially for what it really reduces the unemployment is growth, and I fear it is the only one not expect. As the pendulum rule requires, in addition, ministers are now more than ash and give no joy to anyone.

Moreover, the evolution of certain commodities, especially oil, threatens to end to screw the little hope there, that the rest of Europe to grow and pull us.
Bad times for poetry.


Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Solving the deficit

The chairman of the Committee for Economic and Financial Policy of the CEOE, Jose Luis Feito, has found the remedy the deficit, since the item of unemployment benefits is most important. Admittedly, the measure could lead, without any doubt, to compete for the Nobel laureate himself.

It is that any unemployed person refuses a job offer will be withdrawn automatically entitled to collect unemployment benefits. Although, according to his own words, the job is located in Lapland (far away from Spain, of course).

The hypothesis is that the unemployed are lazy they would rather be at home to work, prefer loafing and receiving a grant to work with the country's progress, they prefer to stay with a handout to earn his salary through effort.

Personally I think the vast majority of unemployed in this country, first it is not by choice, and second, the rejection of a job can be given at a time when no jobs and the unemployed know that if you can wait a little longer to find a placement in better condition than it offered. I do not think we're in this situation and all unemployed person know that, or take what comes, whatever it is, or there will be a second chance.

The verbiage and lack of sensitivity seems to have been installed in certain sectors of the CEOE, not realizing that there are now many people who have a hard and are not directly responsible for that to happen.

To say that we have to accept a job even in Lapland shows that the worker is not known in our country, a few days ago we saw a story on the failure of many Spanish who have gone to find work in Norway and live on charity. I do not think will be a problem is a problem that no work.

Anyway, as has its charms, solves the problem permanently, to Gerona unemployed are offered a job in Huelva, to La Coruna in Murcia, the Canary Islands from Madrid, engineers work mason and bricklayers pilot work and so on, certain that the deficit is reduced but not unemployment.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

You're fired

Well, that's it. It has reduced the dismissal. Now, it's time to create jobs. There are no excuses.

Nor was there before. In fact, new workers covered by the guarantee of 45 days, at present, practically nonexistent. Those who are hired after the publication in the BOE is going to hurt, so far worth 45.

There is no doubt that the duality of the Spanish labor market is tightening (or was) and that this prevented the fixed and favored the hiring of temporary chain. But the measures taken today are not going to lower the unemployment rate, not even going to arrest the further deterioration. It's a long-term measure and for now, and for a long time, there will be no results.

But it's media. It was seen on camera Guindos staging his "petit committee." Please.

Unemployment decreases with growth in Spain, historically, it takes 2 points of GDP growth to reduce unemployment by one point. Do the calculations, 25% unemployment means ...... phew.

The other element is to reduce unemployment with competitiveness, and as we will not compete with emerging economies (or with the Germans if they charge at 1 € per hour) we will have to, investing in R & D, ie knowledge. But, there's always a but, if we not invest when we could invest, did we do now? No, now we cut spending and firing people. Always pro-cyclical measures. When will we learn?