Quid prodest Bankia?

One of the main reasons that have brought this debacle in financial markets, as well as Greek and French elections, has been the involvement of Bankia.

This has been facilitated by Deloitte's refusal to sign bills. Asserts a wealth gap due to the valuation of accounts Bankia in BFA.

The paradox is that the same auditing firm validated the same accounts for just six months and also a little earlier because of the bank's IPO.

Although it is true that the price has since fallen and Bankia traded well below book value, as other banking stocks, does not seem a sufficient reason for varying the auditor's opinion to the point of refusing to sign the audited accounts.

Is responsible for the auditor to have signed a few bills on time last year were virtually equal to those who have refused to sign? What motivated this change of opinion? Is there a conflict of interest, since it also was responsible for auditing the accounts of members of the merger saving banks? Nobody will say anything, not even the CNMV also validated the IPO? Does repeated Enron?, Do not forget that the current Deloitte emerges from the ashes of Arthur Andersen and the Ibex that Deloitte audits from the current portfolio of clients from the old defunct auditing firm and disappeared but auditors reappeared on the other hand.

Rato is now known that he wanted to change the auditors, can revenge?. Costs the country dearly.

The Ibex on the Brink

The spring is not sitting at all well to Ibex, from its inception the corrections have been the main trend that has led the Spanish index to lows of 2009 and virtually the same area from which it rebounded following the dot com crisis early in the last decade. In stock terms, barring more inflation, we can speak of a lost decade.
The question is what will happen from now. The index is in zone indicators bearings and with a strong oversold, so it is likely a reaction. The situation is if you lose the supports is very negative, it seems quite obvious ABC correction, with the current wave C correction of the whole movement. The question is whether end in the area where the wave A ended or will require a lower minimum, be produced and the length of the C of the same order of A, would lead to a target in the 3,000.
Given the composition of the Dow with a heavy weight of the banking sector, this end would not be entirely unheard of, if you also add the important weighting Repsol, we have a likely scenario, compatible with punishment differed among the securities industry, with very punished and others resigned to the lateral inertia.
In the above analysis we referred to the Ides of March and bearish tradition of St. Joseph, today we could bring up the English aphorism of "sell in may and go away". Only 4 days.

The Ides of March

I am a little concerned, although it seems that no matter how bad the news that appears, and that the market remains above the supports, approaches spring, or whatever it is, the Ides of March. The oldest of the place have always attributed a character bass in late winter and early spring, will be it that alters blood. The truth is that I prefer to think as M. Twain and hope that this month is as good or bad as the others.

The Ibex, despite everything, is below the resistance line, an area that in recent months has been impossible to penetrate. The indicators are somewhat overbought so, barring any positive surprise, it not seems that there will be a break immediately.

The finding by Rajoy that is impossible that what is impossible, despite the tenacity Calvinist from Central Europe, and the unstoppable rise in unemployment; the measures taken are not going to give short-term results, especially for what it really reduces the unemployment is growth, and I fear it is the only one not expect. As the pendulum rule requires, in addition, ministers are now more than ash and give no joy to anyone.

Moreover, the evolution of certain commodities, especially oil, threatens to end to screw the little hope there, that the rest of Europe to grow and pull us.
Bad times for poetry.

Efficient markets

A long time ago that financial markets are no longer efficient markets, to be should have a number of essential elements such as the participation of a large number of buyers and sellers, information handy to everyone and equal conditions access to markets and effective regulation to prevent conflicts of interest.

Regarding the number of buyers and sellers has been watching the gradual professionalization, which means a significant reduction in the number of independent investors as compensation for its replacement by an elite of managers. Investment funds, including hedge funds, are the current major players in the market function.

With regard to information has never been easier to access it and has never been so complicated as well, clearing the dust from the chaff, we have not only better information more noise. Something similar to what happens on television, the emergence of more channels has not only improved the level has increased crying.

In relation to equal access, the ever more numerous automatic trading programs (HFT) will fit trends, creating volatility where there is none to his orders, immense in amount and speed of execution, since they are machines those who shoot, make the most possible where there is nothing. So, ordinary mortals do not have anything to do about it, it is impossible to follow a trend because they are custom made machines.

The latter would not be so simple if there is background volume, but as it has driven out the small and medium investors, the game is between the tables of the large international brokers and managers who possess the technical and financial capacity to do so.

Regarding the law, what to say?, the collapse of 2007 seemed to gain momentum in this regard, but again everything has been watered down, the industry is always ahead of the legislator, is faster in the adjustment and pays much better .

Today the Ibex have fallen by 2% for no apparent reason except that you ignore a possible new war, this time with Iran.

The year has ended and the profitability of portfolios and funds will not improve in these four days left, to waste this year.

Large hands are always taken advantage of their privileged position, but now are moving earnestly, now just play with marked cards.

Closing the books

Approaching the end of the year and is not expected to unravel the enigma about the future evolution of Ibex. We reamain within the lateral pattern with the "good" news that the media seem to be holding and we could have an upward bounce during the first weeks of January to the area of ten thousand.

Indicators, nevertheless, remain positive, so for now we continue to neutral in the short to medium term. We will have to wait for the breakdown of some of the important areas.

The only truth is that the great lateral movement that the market started in 2009 remains virtually intact, but the encouraging news is that, if sustained, we are at the bottom of it.