Style question

If we do a bit of memory and try to be minimally fair, remember that the last time got the PP in front of the Government of Spain, namely in 1996, the economic situation was radically different, this, far from buoyant was redirected through adjustment policies undertaken by the head of the Economy, Pedro Solbes.

The erosion of economic ajustment and the political (GAL affaire) for the last government Gonzalez, led the government relief. The PP was found with an economy still in recession but with the duties performed, so a tweak of the wheel, managed to capitalize on their own and others achievements.

The current situation can not be compared, obviously, the previous time the international economic situation which was supported and pushed the Spanish recovery, following competitive devaluations and improvement, the Spanish economy enjoyed the international climate to improve all indicators: growth, personal income, unemployment, etc. At the team responsible for then, Rato is assigned much of the success achieved but without offence, must be attributed a large share of that success to the international environment.

This time, the transfer of power has not been done in the same way, the crisis is not only national but rather international, Solbes, however much he tried, did not have a President of Government, at least at the beginning of problem, willing to sacrifice for the country, may not even really come to understand the proof of the problem.The PP has come, therefore, the government in an entirely different (though majority) since all the dirty work is done.

It is not worth the "laissez faire" to the ship back on track, we must roll up our sleeves. The current team in charge of economic affairs seems, however, have succumbed to the dilettante atmosphere of the Prime Minister, famous for his handling of "tempo": wait and see.

Be undertaken important structural reforms draft, have an absolute majority, years away for the next election. Citizens, no matter political color, if you explain things properly, understand them. All that is asked is that they act so that this agony is as short as possible.

What is not acceptable is to see the explanations after Guindos triumphalist European rebuke or see Montoro explain why rising VAT beacuse "there are much fraud." It is outrageous.

We are fed up that we always are compared with bullfighters and "old fashioned gentlemen", the Spanish are no longer so, only some of its politicians more dandruff.

Junkie´s economy

Much has been talk of the causes of the crisis being the ease of lending by financial institutions one of the reasons adduced to explain more.

However true, so is that nobody forced to sign a mortgage. We have experienced a time when society in general has acted as a junkie and the financial system as a drug dealer. Going the distance, I think the picture is appropriate because the loss of purchasing power has been offset by increased access to credit which has allowed high rates of consumption. This consumption obviously has fallen when the pusher has stopped supplying the drug, in this case the easy money and cheap.

In the underworld of drugs, the addict ends badly or in a detoxification clinic to remove the dependency, the pusher ends, at least in the movies, bad or in jail.

Perhaps this is where the script away in real life, in our case the narco gets away with millions of euros in compensation and a new job waiting just around the corner.

The Ibex on the Brink

The spring is not sitting at all well to Ibex, from its inception the corrections have been the main trend that has led the Spanish index to lows of 2009 and virtually the same area from which it rebounded following the dot com crisis early in the last decade. In stock terms, barring more inflation, we can speak of a lost decade.
The question is what will happen from now. The index is in zone indicators bearings and with a strong oversold, so it is likely a reaction. The situation is if you lose the supports is very negative, it seems quite obvious ABC correction, with the current wave C correction of the whole movement. The question is whether end in the area where the wave A ended or will require a lower minimum, be produced and the length of the C of the same order of A, would lead to a target in the 3,000.
Given the composition of the Dow with a heavy weight of the banking sector, this end would not be entirely unheard of, if you also add the important weighting Repsol, we have a likely scenario, compatible with punishment differed among the securities industry, with very punished and others resigned to the lateral inertia.
In the above analysis we referred to the Ides of March and bearish tradition of St. Joseph, today we could bring up the English aphorism of "sell in may and go away". Only 4 days.

Civil servants

We are waiting for a New International Order, we live in a society in transition and it may last a few years yet, and meanwhile our solution was to give power to the technocrats.
When society loses faith in its leaders turns his gaze toward the technical, ie those which are in principle free of ideological guidelines and should take only those measures that really are suitable to overcome the current crisis.
That's in theory, because the technicians are a class by itself, the bureaucracy, characterized by immobility and the low-risk decision making.
The economic measures taken by our government have not liked anything to markets, just look at the risk premium in our debt, at levels of intervention, and equity markets at year lows. They have not liked, among other things, because only with cuts does not solve the national problem now, growth.
The current managers are acting as diligent CFOs, when things go wrong act cutting costs and investments, minimizing risk, are likely to take defensive positions. I'm not saying that is not appropriate to take such measures, but like many things in life, it's all about proportions.
Companies that fall into the hands of CFOs have the danger of financial panic ahead, are dominated by visions in retrospect, that is, remake or break decisions made earlier in another context.
The companies leading the markets are those in charge but not the CFO to the CEO, that figure should take into account financial aspects, especially in the context of lack of credit, but to have the courage to take risks future growth.
Our leaders are too worried about their accounts and what they owe, when they should be concerned with how to generate the wealth of tomorrow.
Again a question of allocation of scarce resources, they have chosen to safeguard the interests of its class, the civil service, and sacrifice the public investment.
There is an undeniable fact: if it were not so well paid profession of officer graduates would not have so many that they should seek a job opportunity in this area.

Chapter 11 killer's

The last failure in Spain again shows that bankruptcy is not nothing but a liquidation form.
While in other countries is a tool for companies to have a period of time unless the demands of creditors and can successfully renegotiate a viability plan, see the recent case of American Airlines or Delta Airlines presented the "chapter 11 "in September 2005, to cite two examples in the industry, here in Spain bankruptcy has only served to liquidate the company, in fact the ultimate goal of most companies that use this procedure (Air Madrid, Air Comet).
The insolvency regulation, although recently renovated, looking more preserve the rights of creditors that the viability of the company, much more complicated, both for the vast majority of "bankruptcy administrators" basically legal training, the Spanair has gone to "touch" to a law firm controlled by the Gispert Group "curiously" related with the president of the Catalan Parliament, to the managers of the companies seeking, as it seems in this case, throw in the towel after failing the resource who have been welcoming in recent times, institutional manna.
The other big difference with the suspension of payments that have been able to regain economic viability is presented in a reasonable long before the box is dry, because then if it is impossible to reverse.
It's a shame that an instrument used elsewhere to revive companies in crisis, something that is outside the normal business, here becomes a purely administrative procedure to close a new company more.